The New Tax Bill

Well, for better or worse, the Republicans in Congress have all but passed the largest tax reform bill in the history of the United States. Not surprisingly, they did so without any Democrat support, and amid several of the top Liberal obstructionist screaming that the sky is falling.

The Republicans claim that the bill will lower taxes for not only corporations, but a majority of tax payers (especially the middle class). They say that this will create jobs and stimulate the economy by promoting growth.

The Democrats believe that it's just a give away to the wealthy and greedy corporations. It's their view that the new bill will actually hurt the middle class and ruin our economy.

To be honest, it's too early to say for certain who's right or wrong. The bill is less than 24 hours old, and won't really go into effect until February.

However, we're not going into this completely blind. There are some historical evidences as to how smaller but similar bills have acted in the past. Both Presidents Kennedy and Reagan sign smaller versions of this bill, and both times, the economy boomed. Taxes on the lower and middle classes fell, while the job markets soared.

Already, you have companies like Fed-ex announcing that, if Trump signs this into law, they are going to hire tens of thousands of new workers. Other, overseas companies, have reported an interest in setting up operations in the U.S. So, it would seem to me that it's already starting to work on some level.

But, to be "fair" (I have always hated that word), the proof is really in the pudding. Give it until around the November mid-term elections. By then, the full effect should have already been felt. If the economy is strong and expanding, the Republicans will win. If, on the other hand, it's stagnant and collapsing, the Democrats were right and will take control of Congress. It's that simple.

The only snag in this theory I can see, is the removal of the SALT portion of the tax act. This is the part of the tax code that allows people in higher tax States (typically Democrat controlled) to deduct their state and local taxes from their federal. Personally, I find SALT to be "unfair" (It's not a factory worker in Oklahoma's fault a stock broker in New York chose a governor that raises taxes). But, the SALT States are also the most populated, and so will have very loud complaints.

Other than that, I'm willing to bet that, come November,  most of the Democrats are going to regret betting against not only President Trump, but the American people as well. Just as long as the Republicans don't do anything too stupid in other areas, they should be able to pull off another major win in getting reelected.